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post #1 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 02:50 PM Thread Starter
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The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

Hey all,

I'm sitting here at work, bored as all hell....because I'm in sales. I sell IT equipment to corporate companies (from 200 employees to 10,000+ employees). Nobody is buying. In fact, most of my customers are on buying freezes and are laying people off. Some have past due balances in the tens of thousands of dollars that they can't pay so their account is on hold. One of the lucky guys I know had Neiman Brothers as a customer. Their past due balance was in the 10ís of millions of dollars when they went under. Money my company will never see.

The company I work for is in bad shape, but not as bad as our competition. We're pretty much the only ones left who haven't laid off any sales reps yet. My company has said they don't expect any layoffs, but I'm not so sure. Come January (after the holidays), I fear I may be laid off as well. Not that it matters, I'm not making much money right now anyway as I'm commission based (with a very small salary).

But on to my question... Who here thinks we will see another full fledged depression, that which is greater and longer lasting than 1929? I'm not talking about a recession. That debate is over. We're already there, no matter how much politicians refuse to say the word. I'm talking about a depression so bad that it could last 5 or 10 years or more. A situation where millions of people won't be able to find jobs for an extended period of time. A problem that's so bad, it will all but cripple our economy and our way of life, standards of living, etc. Something that will affect the everyone on a global scale (side note: The UK and most of Western Europe is right there with us in this crisis).

Now, I'm no expert on the economy. So take my thoughts with a grain of salt. But I've been doing a LOT of research into our current crisis and am becoming more and more afraid everyday that we are headed into some very tough times. One which rivals the first great depression. This depression will evolve from completely different circumstances than 1929, but will be far worse and last much longer.

I do have facts and statistics to support my theory, but I'd like to see some of your thoughts first before I start getting down to numbers.

And I should clarify...I'm not saying we are doomed. I'm not saying a depression is inevitable. I'm just saying the possibility is there, and everyday it becomes more and more likely.

Prove me wrong......please?

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post #2 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:12 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

Well, there are certainly parallels between the two time periods. An inexplicable increase in equity values. A real estate boom gone bust (just search for what happened in Florida before the Great Depression http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida...m_of_the_1920s ).

I don't believe it will be that bad, but it might *have* to be. First, our nation's economy is a house of cards, has been for decades. The only thing that has allowed our decadence to persist is a world willing to finance our debt and politicians willing to forfeit the long-term stability of the country in trade for short-term political gains. The first point is changing, and will have to change drastically. If it doesn't and we continue to fund our lifestyle through debt, be ready for interest rates exceeding even those seen in the early 80's.

Second, I see no politician with any real influence willing to tell the American population to sit down and shut up. We CAN'T keep entitlements at current levels. We CAN'T keep defense spending at current levels. We MUST run budget surpluses in good times so we can fund stimulus spending in bad times, etc. etc.

Any politician that actually speaks the truth about how close we are to collapse will get wiped out of office. Voters nowadays would rather have sunshine blown up their ass than hear they have to make sacrifices (bye bye SS, higher taxes, etc.).
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post #3 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:20 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

I'm no economist and when it comes to finance, I only know two things... spend and save. That's as far as it goes for me.

Having said that, I wanna thank you for making this thread. Hopefully, the experts on this board can spell it out for economically challenged people like.

Thanks! I'm going to sit here and enjoy this. I may as a dumb question here and there.
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post #4 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:23 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JK13Dj01.html

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post #5 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:44 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

IMO people make it way worse than it is. People around here are still driving, buying etc. Everyone gets scared way to fast. Around here houses are still being built and still being bought, well minus the 5mil homes.

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post #6 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:52 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

[quote author=ITHURTZ link=topic=128259.msg2742685#msg2742685 date=1226609044]
IMO people make it way worse than it is. People around here are still driving, buying etc. Everyone gets scared way to fast. Around here houses are still being built and still being bought, well minus the 5mil homes.
[/quote]

Yes, just as there is irrational exuberance, there is irrational pessimism. There was a good article on BBC two weeks ago that outlined the cause and effects of consumer confidence. In the end, it's just a self fulfilling prophecy.
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post #7 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 03:56 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

[quote author=ITHURTZ link=topic=128259.msg2742685#msg2742685 date=1226609044]
IMO people make it way worse than it is. [/quote]
This is the current problem with the stock market. Aside from the stocks being manipulated by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team - Google it, there is no free trade anymore), people are making everything worse by having a fearful attitude and selling by the masses. The stock market being up today is completely manipulated. Watch the next 3 days, it's quite possible our stocks will fall below 8,000. Not completely due to the economy, but due to uncertainty and fear selling.

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post #8 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 04:00 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

Also, if you guys have time, skim through this one: http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/140497

I don't know who this guy is or how credible he is, but this article is on "How to Survive the Great Depression of 2008 - 2009." Whether you agree with his ethics or not, he gives great advice for those of you who may be at risk of having your house foreclosed. He's predicted this crisis in published articles since 2004.

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post #9 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 04:01 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

[quote author=wxchaser link=topic=128259.msg2742717#msg2742717 date=1226609770]
[quote author=ITHURTZ link=topic=128259.msg2742685#msg2742685 date=1226609044]
IMO people make it way worse than it is. [/quote]
This is the current problem with the stock market. Aside from the stocks being manipulated by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team - Google it, there is no free trade anymore), people are making everything worse by having a fearful attitude and selling by the masses. The stock market being up today is completely manipulated. Watch the next 3 days, it's quite possible our stocks will fall below 8,000. Not completely due to the economy, but due to uncertainty and fear selling.
[/quote]

The days of medium term equity investing are gone. Almost all rationality has been removed, which makes it impossible to target equity prices 6 months out.

Only 3 real potential "winner" strategies, IMO (Moser knows much more about this than I do):

1. Hold for the very long term. Good for out of control bear markets like today.
2. Become good at day trading, having foresight for automated triggers and other option expirations.
3. Go for cash flow. Still some decent investments out there if your primary goal is income rather than appreciation.
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post #10 of 25 (permalink) Old 11-13-2008, 04:09 PM
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Re: The Great Depression of 2009 - 20??

[quote author=wxchaser link=topic=128259.msg2742727#msg2742727 date=1226610053]
Also, if you guys have time, skim through this one: http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/140497

I don't know who this guy is or how credible he is, but this article is on "How to Survive the Great Depression of 2008 - 2009." Whether you agree with his ethics or not, he gives great advice for those of you who may be at risk of having your house foreclosed. He's predicted this crisis in published articles since 2004.
[/quote]

LOL, a good read. I like this comment:

Quote:
1- I am not Jewish, so all you racist/religionist types can just stop the hate mail. Just beat your wife and leave me alone. I hope she calls the cops on you.
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